In the first eight weeks of Donald Trump’s second term in office, media around the world reported on the massive changes the 47th President of the United States made to the country’s foreign policy. From cutting funding to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), an organisation intended to extend assistance to countries recovering from disaster, trying to escape poverty, and engaging in democratic reforms, to widespread threats of sanctions against a number of countries and individuals, Trump’s America-first agenda has dominated global news.
Among all of the uproar, far too little attention has been dedicated to the fact that Trump has effectively announced America’s strategy to win the world’s technological arms race. From AI, to blockchain, to quantum computing, tomorrow’s superpowers will lead in the development and use of emerging technologies, which will be used to create and exploit economic and social power as much as they will be employed in military applications.
The politics of technology
The relationship between technological prowess and a country’s global political influence has become more apparent over the past few years, with tensions between countries like Russia, China and the USA translating to intimidation tactics focused on technological superiority and the resultant economic impact. Where political posturing would have focused on the threat of conflict in the past, today’s biggest threats lie in a country’s ability to provide – or refuse – access to the technologies that enable economic growth.
For example, the USA’s repeated threats to ban social media platform TikTok have more to do with the country’s political tensions with China than any other factor, and the same applies to China’s development of DeepSeek, its own open-source AI. Similarly, Russia’s decision to develop its own cryptocurrency is rooted in threats of international financial sanctions. While any of these technologies can be used in conflict scenarios, the reality is that restricting access to them will hinder the economic growth of the country affected far more than its military.
In his new book, The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, Alex Karp, CEO of US military tech firm Palantir, calls for more co-operation between the American government and tech sector to develop innovative big-tech projects that have social and political consequence. “In order for the West to retain its global edge—and preserve the freedoms we take for granted—the software industry must renew its commitment to addressing our most urgent challenges, including the new arms race of artificial intelligence. Government, in turn, must embrace the most effective features of the engineering mindset that have propelled Silicon Valley’s success,” Karp argues.
Trump, it seems, was already thinking along these lines before his inauguration, which saw a disproportionate number of tech leaders in the front row. The announcement of the establishment of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) to spearhead American innovation and competitiveness in critical and emerging technologies also demonstrates the Trump administration’s understanding of the importance emerging technologies will play on the global stage in the future.
China is another superpower focused on technological innovation. In 2024, the Chinese government announced a massive $52 billion investment in tech research and development, the country’s largest increase of any major funding area, including military spending.
A real and present danger
As emerging technologies start to permeate every aspect of our lives, countries that are relying on other nations for their technological capabilities will not only lose any global standing they may have, they will also be placing their economies in jeopardy. Any political tensions can translate to immediate economic repercussions that are more far-reaching than traditional measures. Imagine if South Africa’s current spat with the US led to Microsoft refusing to sell licences locally. That would cause far more economic damage, on a much bigger scale, than higher import duties, or restrictions on financial transactions.
Despite the South African government’s token support of the tech sector, the country’s investment into research and development resides in the private sector, and is limited by policies that hamstring the capability of businesses to innovate. This is already straining our economy, with other African countries fast catching up – and even overtaking us in some cases – in terms of GDP growth. If South Africa doesn’t start focusing on our own technological development and innovation, we will not only lose the technology arms race, we will become obsolete on the global stage.
